Dispersion of Epic Proportions: What Nomura Sees Beneath the S&P 500

Nomura's McElligott flags a 30-year extreme. History says the next 2–3 months matter.

A flat market sounds boring. This one isn’t.

The S&P 500 went nowhere in a month — while the average stock inside it moved 10.8%. That gap hasn’t been this extreme in 30 years. Something is breaking beneath the surface.

Nomura’s Charlie McElligott just put a name on it: “dispersion of epic proportions.” Since January 15, the S&P 500 has returned exactly 0.0% — but the average stock swung nearly eleven percent. That gap sits at the 99th percentile of the last three decades.

Energy stocks are surging. Tech giants are falling. Industrials are rallying. Software is crashing. These moves cancel each other out at the index level — so the S&P looks flat. But underneath, individual stocks are swinging with a violence we almost never see.

The uncomfortable part: this has only happened 8 times before in 30 years. In most cases, the S&P 500 turned negative 2–3 months later.

This is exactly what we highlighted in our February 16 analysis — 65% of S&P 500 stocks beating the index while the mega-cap leaders were down 15%+ from their highs. Nomura just confirmed it with 30 years of data.

In a market where the index tells you nothing, knowing which industries carry momentum is everything.

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