Neutral, Not Numb: Early Signs of Market Reacceleration
ImGeld Market Breadth Update — 2025-11-11
Executive Summary
Bias: NEUTRAL
Exposure: Long 65%, Short 0%, Cash 35%
Breadth: NYSI (McClellan Summation Index) remains positive but fell over four sessions before a modest uptick; NYAD (NYSE Advance–Decline Line) was volatile but printed two consecutive strong positives.
Leadership: NYHGH (New 52-Week Highs) expanded; NYLOW (New 52-Week Lows) retreated from an extreme but remains elevated.
Volatility: VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) 17.6 and RVX (CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index) 24.02; tone easing with a persistent small-cap risk premium.
Tactics: Maintain neutral posture. Favor selective longs in sectors showing expanding new highs and firm bases; avoid names near new lows. Keep risk tight until lows compress further and NYSI inflects higher.
Global Read
NYSI: 138.64 → 83.85 over five sessions, remaining above 0 (constructive) but signaling momentum loss; slight turn higher on the latest print.
NYAD: -1015, +1014, -870, +1012, +1012; choppy sequence with a net positive 5-day sum, improving into the last two sessions.
NYHGH: 39 → 146, steady expansion in new highs, indicating improving leadership participation.
NYLOW: 99, 80, 137, 66, 66; risk-off spike on 11-07 (>100) faded, but current 66 is above the healthy threshold (<40), implying lingering stress in laggards.
Volatility: VIX 19.0 → 17.6 and RVX 24.82 → 24.02; both eased, while the RVX-VIX spread near 6.4 points continues to reflect higher small-cap risk.
Interpretation: Breadth strength is tentatively broadening, led by expanding new highs and back-to-back positive NYAD, but the elevated NYLOW count limits conviction. With NYSI above zero, the structure is constructive but not confirmed. Volatility compression supports risk-taking at the margin, yet confirmation requires further improvement in lows.
3–8 week outlook: Base-building with upside potential if NYSI turns decisively higher and NYLOW trends below 40 while VIX remains contained. Confirmation would be:
NYSI rising and holding above 0 with expanding NYHGH
NYLOW sustaining below 40
VIX stable sub-17 and RVX not re-accelerating
Invalidation would be:
NYSI rolling below 0
NYLOW returning above 100 for multiple sessions
VIX breaking above 20 or RVX materially widening versus VIX
Market Breadth Summary (Last Five Sessions):
Implementation Guidance
• For LONGS: focus on positions above the 200 / 150 SMA, confirming support, and prioritize industries with a High ImGeld Industry Score rating.
• For SHORTS: focus on positions below the 200 / 150 SMA, rejecting resistance, and prioritize industries with a Low ImGeld Industry Score rating.
Remember, fundamentals represent 80 percent of every decision while 20 percent comes from technical setup. Timing matters.
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Disclaimer: ImGeld content is for informational use only and not financial advice. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Always consider your personal objectives before investing.