Highs Are Expanding… The Question Is: Are You in the Right Industries?
IMGELD Market Breadth Update: 2025-11-13
Executive Summary
Bias: TENTATIVE LONG
Allocation: 65% Long, 0% Short, 35% Cash
Breadth: NYSI (McClellan Summation Index) at 117.48 remains positive; NYAD (NYSE Advance-Decline Line) prints positive at 62.0. NYHGH (New 52-Week Highs) at 152 outpaces NYLOW (New 52-Week Lows) at 41.
Volatility: VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) 17.51; RVX (CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index) 23.88. Tone is contained with a persistent small-cap risk premium.
Tactical: Favor high-quality names within industries showing expanding highs and resilient breadth. Maintain selective exposure; avoid crowded small-cap beta until RVX compresses or lows fall decisively.
Global Read
Five-session dynamics point to constructive but tentative participation: NYSI above 0 is supportive, indicating an improving intermediate thrust; NYAD positive suggests net buying interest. Leadership is present with highs exceeding lows, yet NYLOW at 41 sits marginally above the “healthy” threshold of sub-40, warranting vigilance.
Volatility is moderate. VIX sub-20 aligns with a risk-on tilt, while RVX > VIX reflects persistent small-cap fragility. The RVX premium keeps the quality and liquidity bias intact.
Breadth strength appears to be cautiously broadening rather than narrowing, but with a plateau risk if highs stall or lows rise.
Thresholds:
• NYSI above 0 = constructive (current 117.48)
• NYLOW below 40 = healthy; above 100 = risk-off
• Current 41 is near the healthy boundary
3–8 week outlook: Base case is a measured advance with rotation into quality growth within strong industries, contingent on stable volatility and steady highs.
Confirmation would be: NYSI advancing and holding >150, NYHGH >200 on multiple sessions, NYLOW sustained <40, VIX ≤18 with RVX trending lower.
Invalidation would be: NYSI rolling over toward 0 and turning negative, NYLOW >100, VIX >22 or RVX >30, and a reversal in the A-D profile.
Market Breadth Summary
Implementation Guidance
• For LONGS: focus on positions above the 200 / 150 SMA, confirming support, and prioritize industries with a High ImGeld Industry Score rating.
• For SHORTS: focus on positions below the 200 / 150 SMA, rejecting resistance, and prioritize industries with a Low ImGeld Industry Score rating.
Fundamentals represent 80% of every decision, while 20% comes from technical setup. Timing matters.
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Disclaimer: ImGeld content is for informational use only and not financial advice. Markets involve risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Always consider your personal objectives before investing.