Downside Breadth Widens: NYSI Negative, Volatility Rising—Maintain Tentative Short Bias
ImGeld Market Breadth Update — 2025-11-18
Executive Summary
Breadth deteriorated across the last five sessions. NYSI (McClellan Summation Index) fell steadily and turned negative, while NYAD (Advance–Decline Line) printed three materially negative days with only a modest positive close today. Volatility expanded as VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) and RVX (Russell Volatility Index) advanced to the mid-20s and high-20s respectively. Selective, tactical long interest may emerge only in resilient mid-cap industries with defensive or counter-cyclical profiles; short opportunities remain valid in extended large-cap growth and cyclical industries where weakness is confirmed. Selectivity must be high.
Global Read
Participation is broadening to the downside: NYLOW (New 52-Week Lows) rose each day and NYHGH (New 52-Week Highs) contracted, signaling leadership narrowing and concentrated resilience. Volatility is firmly expanding, elevating whipsaw risk and favoring risk control. A one-day NYAD rebound contrasts with a five-day NYSI slide into negative territory, a minor divergence that, by the five-day consistency rule, is only tentative and not yet actionable as a trend change. The five-day pattern indicates a continuation phase of distribution rather than early accumulation or exhaustion.
Market Breadth Summary (Last Five Sessions)
Indicator Breakdown
1. NYSI (McClellan Summation Index): Firmly declining for five sessions (117.48 to -7.70), a decisive momentum break with a bearish inflection below zero.
2. NYAD (Advance–Decline Line): Weak breadth with heavy negatives on 11/13 and 11/17; today’s modest positive is insufficient to alter the deteriorating participation trend.
3. NYHGH (New 52-Week Highs): Contracted from 152 to 37, confirming leadership shrinkage and poor follow-through on breakouts.
4. NYLOW (New 52-Week Lows): Climbed from 41 to 168, evidencing persistent downside pressure and waning risk appetite.
5. Volatility Regime: VIX rose 17.5 to 24.7 and RVX 23.9 to 29.0, an expansionary regime that favors defensive posture, tighter stops, and shorter holding periods.
CTA
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